The Prediction Markets

Illinois's 6th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$17K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Casten, 5+ pts 91.5%

Next is Casten, 8+ pts at 84.6%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Casten, 5+ pts
91.5%
Kalshi 91.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Casten, 5+ pts
Last price
91.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
91.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Casten, 8+ pts
84.6%
Kalshi 84.6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 90.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Casten, 8+ pts
Last price
84.6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
90.2¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Casten, 11+ pts
72.5%
Kalshi 72.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Casten, 11+ pts
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Casten, 14+ pts
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Casten, 14+ pts
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$151
Trade this on Kalshi
Casten, 17+ pts
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Casten, 17+ pts
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Kalshi
Casten, 20+ pts
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Casten, 20+ pts
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Casten, 23+ pts
30.5%
Kalshi 30.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Casten, 23+ pts
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 15-20%
23.6%
Polymarket 23.6%polled, just nowBest Yes 23.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $418 (4.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
23.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23.9¢
Sell Yes
23.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$418 (4.18x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 20-25%
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, just nowBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Casten, 26+ pts
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Casten, 26+ pts
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Democrat 25-30%
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, just nowBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-15%
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 22.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $437 (4.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22.9¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$437 (4.37x)
Volume
$631
Trade this on Polymarket
Casten, 29+ pts
9.3%
Kalshi 9.3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Casten, 29+ pts
Last price
9.3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
4.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 30-35%
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5-10%
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 35%+
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, just nowBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35%+
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$266
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$334
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$488
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Illinois State Board of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Casten, 5+ pts
  • Casten, 8+ pts
  • Casten, 11+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Casten, 5+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Illinois's 6th District margin of victory". Casten, 5+ pts leads at 91.5%. Next is Casten, 8+ pts at 84.6%. $17K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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