The Prediction Markets

Illinois's 7th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$20K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Ford, 56+ pts 94%

Next is Ford, 59+ pts at 89.8%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Ford, 56+ pts
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 97.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ford, 56+ pts
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
97.4¢
Sell Yes
92.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ford, 59+ pts
89.8%
Kalshi 89.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 95.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ford, 59+ pts
Last price
89.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
95.5¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ford, 62+ pts
77.5%
Kalshi 77.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ford, 62+ pts
Last price
77.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ford, 65+ pts
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ford, 65+ pts
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Ford, 68+ pts
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ford, 68+ pts
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Ford, 71+ pts
43.5%
Kalshi 43.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ford, 71+ pts
Last price
43.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ford, 74+ pts
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ford, 74+ pts
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 70-75%
29.3%
Polymarket 29.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $319 (3.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 70-75%
Last price
29.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31.3¢
Sell Yes
27.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$319 (3.19x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 75-80%
23.2%
Polymarket 23.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $415 (4.15x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 75-80%
Last price
23.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24.1¢
Sell Yes
22.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$415 (4.15x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 65-70%
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 65-70%
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Ford, 77+ pts
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ford, 77+ pts
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ford, 80+ pts
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ford, 80+ pts
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$114
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 60-65%
9.2%
Polymarket 9.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $621 (6.21x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 60-65%
Last price
9.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16.1¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$621 (6.21x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 55-60%
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 55-60%
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 80-85%
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 80-85%
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$610
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 85%+
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 85%+
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$514
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 45-55%
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45-55%
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-45%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-45%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$318
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Illinois State Board of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ford, 56+ pts
  • Ford, 59+ pts
  • Ford, 62+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Ford, 56+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Illinois's 7th District margin of victory". Ford, 56+ pts leads at 94%. Next is Ford, 59+ pts at 89.8%. $20K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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