The Prediction Markets

Illinois's 8th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$24K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Bean, 3+ pts 95.4%

Next is Bean, 6+ pts at 91.8%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Bean, 3+ pts
95.4%
Kalshi 95.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bean, 3+ pts
Last price
95.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
97.4¢
Sell Yes
93.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Bean, 6+ pts
91.8%
Kalshi 91.8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bean, 6+ pts
Last price
91.8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
97.3¢
Sell Yes
91.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$135
Trade this on Kalshi
Bean, 9+ pts
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bean, 9+ pts
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
97.3¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$105
Trade this on Kalshi
Bean, 12+ pts
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 93.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $107 (1.07x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bean, 12+ pts
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
93.7¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$107 (1.07x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bean, 15+ pts
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bean, 15+ pts
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$584
Trade this on Kalshi
Bean, 18+ pts
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bean, 18+ pts
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$226
Trade this on Kalshi
Bean, 21+ pts
39.5%
Kalshi 39.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bean, 21+ pts
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 20-25%
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bean, 24+ pts
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bean, 24+ pts
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$260
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 25-30%
26%
Polymarket 26%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
Bean, 27+ pts
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bean, 27+ pts
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
9.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 15-20%
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5-10%
6.2%
Polymarket 6.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
6.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$954
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30-35%
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$899
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-15%
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 35%+
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35%+
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$850
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$526
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Illinois State Board of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Bean, 3+ pts
  • Bean, 6+ pts
  • Bean, 9+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Bean, 3+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Illinois's 8th District margin of victory". Bean, 3+ pts leads at 95.4%. Next is Bean, 6+ pts at 91.8%. $24K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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