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What the markets expect
Biss, 34+ pts 91.1%
Next is Biss, 31+ pts at 90.7%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Biss, 34+ pts91.1%Not listed91.1%85¢ bid, 92.5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago92.5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $108 (1.08x)Biss, 34+ pts91.1%Kalshi 91.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 92.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Biss, 34+ pts
91.1%
Not listed
91.1%
85¢ bid, 92.5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
92.5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Biss, 34+ pts
91.1%
Kalshi 91.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 92.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Biss, 34+ pts
- Last price
- 91.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 92.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 85¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
- Volume
- $113
Biss, 31+ pts90.7%Not listed90.7%90.7¢ bid, 97.9¢ askpolled, 1 min ago97.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Biss, 31+ pts90.7%Kalshi 90.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Biss, 31+ pts
90.7%
Not listed
90.7%
90.7¢ bid, 97.9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
97.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Biss, 31+ pts
90.7%
Kalshi 90.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Biss, 31+ pts
- Last price
- 90.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 97.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 90.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
- Volume
- $2K
Biss, 37+ pts82%Not listed82%73¢ bid, 84¢ askpolled, 1 min ago84¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $119 (1.19x)Biss, 37+ pts82%Kalshi 82%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Biss, 37+ pts
82%
Not listed
82%
73¢ bid, 84¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
84¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Biss, 37+ pts
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Biss, 37+ pts
- Last price
- 82%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 84¢
- Sell Yes
- 73¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $119 (1.19x)
- Volume
- $50
Biss, 40+ pts70%Not listed70%65¢ bid, 70¢ askpolled, 1 min ago70¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $143 (1.43x)Biss, 40+ pts70%Kalshi 70%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Biss, 40+ pts
70%
Not listed
70%
65¢ bid, 70¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
70¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Biss, 40+ pts
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Biss, 40+ pts
- Last price
- 70%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 70¢
- Sell Yes
- 65¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $143 (1.43x)
- Volume
- $159
Biss, 43+ pts55%Not listed55%51¢ bid, 59¢ askpolled, 1 min ago59¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $169 (1.69x)Biss, 43+ pts55%Kalshi 55%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Biss, 43+ pts
55%
Not listed
55%
51¢ bid, 59¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
59¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Biss, 43+ pts
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Biss, 43+ pts
- Last price
- 55%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 59¢
- Sell Yes
- 51¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $169 (1.69x)
Biss, 46+ pts44%Not listed44%40¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, 1 min ago48¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $208 (2.08x)Biss, 46+ pts44%Kalshi 44%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Biss, 46+ pts
44%
Not listed
44%
40¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
48¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Biss, 46+ pts
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Biss, 46+ pts
- Last price
- 44%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 40¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
Biss, 49+ pts32.5%Not listed32.5%28¢ bid, 37¢ askpolled, 1 min ago37¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $270 (2.70x)Biss, 49+ pts32.5%Kalshi 32.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Biss, 49+ pts
32.5%
Not listed
32.5%
28¢ bid, 37¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
37¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Biss, 49+ pts
32.5%
Kalshi 32.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Biss, 49+ pts
- Last price
- 32.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 37¢
- Sell Yes
- 28¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $270 (2.70x)
Democrat 45-50%24.6%24.6%23.5¢ bid, 25.7¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed25.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $389 (3.89x)Democrat 45-50%24.6%Polymarket 24.6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 25.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $389 (3.89x)
Democrat 45-50%
24.6%
24.6%
23.5¢ bid, 25.7¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
25.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $389 (3.89x)
Democrat 45-50%
24.6%
Polymarket 24.6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 25.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $389 (3.89x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 45-50%
- Last price
- 24.6%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 25.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 23.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $389 (3.89x)
- Volume
- $2K
Democrat 40-45%24.1%24.1%23.2¢ bid, 24.9¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed24.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $402 (4.02x)Democrat 40-45%24.1%Polymarket 24.1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 24.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $402 (4.02x)
Democrat 40-45%
24.1%
24.1%
23.2¢ bid, 24.9¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
24.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $402 (4.02x)
Democrat 40-45%
24.1%
Polymarket 24.1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 24.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $402 (4.02x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 40-45%
- Last price
- 24.1%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 24.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 23.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $402 (4.02x)
- Volume
- $2K
Biss, 52+ pts21.5%Not listed21.5%17¢ bid, 26¢ askpolled, 1 min ago26¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $385 (3.85x)Biss, 52+ pts21.5%Kalshi 21.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Biss, 52+ pts
21.5%
Not listed
21.5%
17¢ bid, 26¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
26¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Biss, 52+ pts
21.5%
Kalshi 21.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Biss, 52+ pts
- Last price
- 21.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 26¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $385 (3.85x)
Show 9 more outcomesHide 9 outcomes
Democrat 50-55%17.5%17.5%10¢ bid, 25¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed25¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $400 (4.00x)Democrat 50-55%17.5%Polymarket 17.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Democrat 50-55%
17.5%
17.5%
10¢ bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
25¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Democrat 50-55%
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 50-55%
- Last price
- 17.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
- Volume
- $2K
Biss, 55+ pts15%Not listed15%5.6¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 1 min ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Biss, 55+ pts15%Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Biss, 55+ pts
15%
Not listed
15%
5.6¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Biss, 55+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Biss, 55+ pts
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $80
Democrat 55-60%15%15%10¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed20¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $500 (5.00x)Democrat 55-60%15%Polymarket 15%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Democrat 55-60%
15%
15%
10¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
20¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Democrat 55-60%
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 55-60%
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
- Volume
- $907
Democrat 35-40%7.8%7.8%3.6¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed12¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Democrat 35-40%7.8%Polymarket 7.8%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Democrat 35-40%
7.8%
7.8%
3.6¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
12¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Democrat 35-40%
7.8%
Polymarket 7.8%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 35-40%
- Last price
- 7.8%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $698
Democrat 20-30%6.2%6.2%2¢ bid, 10.4¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed10.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $962 (9.62x)Democrat 20-30%6.2%Polymarket 6.2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 10.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $962 (9.62x)
Democrat 20-30%
6.2%
6.2%
2¢ bid, 10.4¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
10.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $962 (9.62x)
Democrat 20-30%
6.2%
Polymarket 6.2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 10.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $962 (9.62x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 20-30%
- Last price
- 6.2%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $962 (9.62x)
- Volume
- $1K
Democrat 30-35%5.5%5.5%0.7¢ bid, 10.2¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed10.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $980 (9.80x)Democrat 30-35%5.5%Polymarket 5.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 10.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $980 (9.80x)
Democrat 30-35%
5.5%
5.5%
0.7¢ bid, 10.2¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
10.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $980 (9.80x)
Democrat 30-35%
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 10.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $980 (9.80x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 30-35%
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $980 (9.80x)
- Volume
- $613
Democrat 0-20%2.5%2.5%1.2¢ bid, 3.7¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed3.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)Democrat 0-20%2.5%Polymarket 2.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Democrat 0-20%
2.5%
2.5%
1.2¢ bid, 3.7¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
3.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Democrat 0-20%
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 0-20%
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,703 (27.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Democrat 60%+2.3%2.3%0.7¢ bid, 3.8¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed3.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)Democrat 60%+2.3%Polymarket 2.3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Democrat 60%+
2.3%
2.3%
0.7¢ bid, 3.8¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
3.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Democrat 60%+
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 60%+
- Last price
- 2.3%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,632 (26.3x)
- Volume
- $713
Republican Wins1.4%1.4%0.3¢ bid, 2.4¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed2.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)Republican Wins1.4%Polymarket 1.4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Republican Wins
1.4%
1.4%
0.3¢ bid, 2.4¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
2.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Republican Wins
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican Wins
- Last price
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,167 (41.7x)
- Volume
- $608
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Biss, 34+ pts
- Biss, 31+ pts
- Biss, 37+ pts
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list Biss, 34+ pts for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Illinois's 9th District margin of victory". Biss, 34+ pts leads at 91.1%. Next is Biss, 31+ pts at 90.7%. $16K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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