The Prediction Markets

In which month will Anthropic IPO?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$429K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
3 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

November 2026 68.8%

Next is December 2026 at 11.6%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

November 2026 68.8%December 2026 11.6%January 2027 11.3%April 2027 1.4%February 2027 1.3%11 others 5.6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
November 2026
68.8%
Polymarket 72.8%(68.9% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 73.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 2026
Last price
72.8%
Fair, margin removed
68.9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
73.9¢
Sell Yes
71.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$100K
Trade this on Polymarket
December 2026
11.6%
Polymarket 12.3%(11.6% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 14.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $694 (6.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 2026
Last price
12.3%
Fair, margin removed
11.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
14.4¢
Sell Yes
10.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$694 (6.94x)
Volume
$55K
Trade this on Polymarket
January 2027
11.3%
Polymarket 11.9%(11.3% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 13.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $735 (7.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
January 2027
Last price
11.9%
Fair, margin removed
11.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
13.6¢
Sell Yes
10.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$735 (7.35x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
April 2027
1.4%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
April 2027
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
February 2027
1.3%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
February 2027
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
May 2027
1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 2027
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
March 2027
0.8%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
March 2027
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
No IPO before 2028
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
No IPO before 2028
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
July 2027
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
July 2027
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
June 2027
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
June 2027
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 6 more outcomes
August 2027
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
August 2027
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
December 2027
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 2027
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
November 2027
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 2027
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
October 2027
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 2027
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
September 2027
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
September 2027
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
October 2026
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 2026
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$93K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • November 2026
  • December 2026
  • January 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "In which month will Anthropic IPO?". November 2026 leads at 68.8%. Next is December 2026 at 11.6%. $429K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

This market will resolve based on the calendar month (ET) in which Anthropic's initial public offering (IPO) occurs. The resolving month will be the calendar month (ET) containing the first day on which Anthropic shares are listed and open for regular-way trading on a public securities exchange. An IPO refers to Anthropic shares becoming listed and open for trading on a public securities exchange, whether through a traditional initial public offering or a direct listing. If Anthropic goes public through a merger, acquisition, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded, including a special purpose acquisition company, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun. Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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