The Prediction Markets

Indiana's 3rd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$10K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Stutzman, 8+ pts 94%

Next is Stutzman, 11+ pts at 90%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Stutzman, 8+ pts
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 97.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stutzman, 8+ pts
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.9¢
Sell Yes
90.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Stutzman, 11+ pts
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stutzman, 11+ pts
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Stutzman, 14+ pts
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stutzman, 14+ pts
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$320
Trade this on Kalshi
Stutzman, 17+ pts
69.5%
Kalshi 69.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stutzman, 17+ pts
Last price
69.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Stutzman, 20+ pts
55.5%
Kalshi 55.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stutzman, 20+ pts
Last price
55.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Stutzman, 23+ pts
40.5%
Kalshi 40.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stutzman, 23+ pts
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 25-30%
38.5%
Polymarket 38.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Stutzman, 26+ pts
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stutzman, 26+ pts
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 20-25%
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 15-20%
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Stutzman, 29+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stutzman, 29+ pts
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
9.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Stutzman, 32+ pts
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stutzman, 32+ pts
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$450
Trade this on Kalshi
Stutzman, 35+ pts
8.1%
Kalshi 8.1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 9.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,075 (10.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stutzman, 35+ pts
Last price
8.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,075 (10.8x)
Volume
$502
Trade this on Kalshi
Stutzman, 38+ pts
7.2%
Kalshi 7.2%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stutzman, 38+ pts
Last price
7.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$610
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 10-15%
5.3%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 10.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $980 (9.80x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.2¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$980 (9.80x)
Volume
$490
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30-35%
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$516
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 40%+
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 40%+
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$361
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 35-40%
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35-40%
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$311
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-10%
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-10%
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$314
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Stutzman, 8+ pts
  • Stutzman, 11+ pts
  • Stutzman, 14+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Stutzman, 8+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Indiana's 3rd District margin of victory". Stutzman, 8+ pts leads at 94%. Next is Stutzman, 11+ pts at 90%. $10K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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