The Prediction Markets

Indiana's 4th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$25K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Baird, 13+ pts 95.3%

Next is Baird, 16+ pts at 79%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Baird, 13+ pts
95.3%
Kalshi 95.3%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 95.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Baird, 13+ pts
Last price
95.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95.3¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Baird, 16+ pts
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Baird, 16+ pts
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$540
Trade this on Kalshi
Baird, 19+ pts
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Baird, 19+ pts
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$555
Trade this on Kalshi
Baird, 22+ pts
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Baird, 22+ pts
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$13
Trade this on Kalshi
Baird, 25+ pts
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Baird, 25+ pts
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$45
Trade this on Kalshi
Baird, 28+ pts
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Baird, 28+ pts
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$254
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 30-35%
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Baird, 31+ pts
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Baird, 31+ pts
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$412
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 25-30%
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 20-25%
16.1%
Polymarket 16.1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 26.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $375 (3.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
16.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26.7¢
Sell Yes
5.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$375 (3.75x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
Republican 15-20%
14.7%
Polymarket 14.7%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 16.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $613 (6.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
14.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16.3¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$613 (6.13x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Baird, 34+ pts
8.3%
Kalshi 8.3%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Baird, 34+ pts
Last price
8.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Baird, 37+ pts
8.1%
Kalshi 8.1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 9.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,075 (10.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Baird, 37+ pts
Last price
8.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,075 (10.8x)
Volume
$89
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 10-15%
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 10.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $952 (9.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.5¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$952 (9.52x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 35-40%
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35-40%
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$893
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 40%+
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 40%+
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$998
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-10%
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-10%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Indiana Election Division

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Baird, 13+ pts
  • Baird, 16+ pts
  • Baird, 19+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Baird, 13+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Indiana's 4th District margin of victory". Baird, 13+ pts leads at 95.3%. Next is Baird, 16+ pts at 79%. $25K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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