The Prediction Markets

Indiana's 5th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$29K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Spartz, 1+ pts 81%

Next is Spartz, 4+ pts at 63%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Spartz, 1+ pts
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Spartz, 1+ pts
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Spartz, 4+ pts
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Spartz, 4+ pts
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Spartz, 7+ pts
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Spartz, 7+ pts
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Spartz, 10+ pts
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Spartz, 10+ pts
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Spartz, 13+ pts
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Spartz, 13+ pts
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 12-15%
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12-15%
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 6-9%
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Spartz, 16+ pts
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Spartz, 16+ pts
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 9-12%
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Spartz, 19+ pts
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Spartz, 19+ pts
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$710
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Spartz, 22+ pts
9.8%
Kalshi 9.8%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Spartz, 22+ pts
Last price
9.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$92
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 3-6%
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-3%
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
7.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 15-18%
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-18%
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 21%+
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 21%+
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
5.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$311
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 3%+
5.3%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3%+
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$434
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-3%
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 9.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.5¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,053 (10.5x)
Volume
$521
Trade this on Polymarket
Spartz, 25+ pts
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Spartz, 25+ pts
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$539
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 18-21%
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 18-21%
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$172
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Spartz, 1+ pts
  • Spartz, 4+ pts
  • Spartz, 7+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Spartz, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Indiana's 5th District margin of victory". Spartz, 1+ pts leads at 81%. Next is Spartz, 4+ pts at 63%. $29K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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