The Prediction Markets

Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY)

Closes
Jan 13, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$335K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 3.0% 96%

Next is Above 3.1% at 96%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 3.0%
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.0%
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.1%
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.1%
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.3%
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.3%
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.2%
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.2%
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.4%
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.4%
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.5%
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.5%
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.6%
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.6%
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.7%
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.7%
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.8%
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.8%
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$69K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.9%
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.9%
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$63K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 11 more outcomes
Above 4.0%
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.0%
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.2%
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.2%
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.1%
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.1%
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.4%
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.4%
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.3%
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.3%
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.5%
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.5%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.7%
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.7%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.6%
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.6%
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.8%
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.8%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.9%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.9%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.0%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.0%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 3.0%
  • Above 3.1%
  • Above 3.3%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY)". Above 3.0% leads at 96%. Next is Above 3.1% at 96%. $335K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 13, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More economics markets

See all economics markets