The Prediction Markets

Ink FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$1.0M
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

100M 18%

Next is 250M at 17.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
100M
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
100M
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$182K
Trade this on Polymarket
250M
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
250M
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$164K
Trade this on Polymarket
500M
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
500M
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$377K
Trade this on Polymarket
1B
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
1B
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$254K
Trade this on Polymarket
2B
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
2B
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
4.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Polymarket
3B
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
3B
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: inkonchain.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 100M
  • 250M
  • 500M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Ink FDV above ___ one day after launch?". 100M leads at 18%. Next is 250M at 17.5%. $1.0M has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ink's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ink (http://inkonchain.com/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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