The Prediction Markets

Intel headcount in Q3

Closes
Feb 19, 2027, in 4 months
Traded
$10K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 79 thousand 99%

Next is Above 79.5 thousand at 79%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 79 thousand
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 79 thousand
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$83
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 79.5 thousand
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 79.5 thousand
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 80 thousand
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 80 thousand
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 80.5 thousand
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 80.5 thousand
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 81 thousand
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 81 thousand
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 81.5 thousand
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 81.5 thousand
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 82 thousand
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 82 thousand
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$888
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 82.5 thousand
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 82.5 thousand
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$194
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 83 thousand
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 83 thousand
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$194
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 83.5 thousand
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 83.5 thousand
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 79 thousand
  • Above 79.5 thousand
  • Above 80 thousand

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Intel headcount in Q3". Above 79 thousand leads at 99%. Next is Above 79.5 thousand at 79%. $10K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 19, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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