The Prediction Markets

Iowa Attorney General Election Winner

Closes
Nov 3, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$8K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 min ago
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What the markets expect

Brenna Bird (R) 55.3%

Next is Nate Willems (D) at 44.7%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Brenna Bird (R) 55.3%Nate Willems (D) 44.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Brenna Bird (R)
55.3%
Polymarket 55%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brenna Bird (R)
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nate Willems (D)
44.7%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nate Willems (D)
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Brenna Bird (R)
  • Nate Willems (D)

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 2 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Iowa Attorney General Election Winner". Brenna Bird (R) leads at 55.3%. Next is Nate Willems (D) at 44.7%. $8K has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the 2026 Iowa Attorney General election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the results of the election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the election according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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