The Prediction Markets

Iowa Democratic presidential caucus winner?

Closes
Nov 7, 2028, in 24 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Jon Ossoff 30.5%

Next is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 15.8%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Jon Ossoff 30.5%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 15.8%Gavin Newsom 14.7%Pete Buttigieg 9.8%Andy Beshear 5.4%7 others 23.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Jon Ossoff
30.5%
Kalshi 28%(30.5% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jon Ossoff
Last price
28%
Fair, margin removed
30.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$68
Trade this on Kalshi
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
15.8%
Kalshi 14.5%(15.8% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Last price
14.5%
Fair, margin removed
15.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Gavin Newsom
14.7%
Kalshi 13.5%(14.7% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gavin Newsom
Last price
13.5%
Fair, margin removed
14.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Pete Buttigieg
9.8%
Kalshi 9%(9.8% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Buttigieg
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
9.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$880
Trade this on Kalshi
Andy Beshear
5.4%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Andy Beshear
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$75
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh Shapiro
5.4%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Shapiro
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kamala Harris
5.4%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kamala Harris
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Raphael Warnock
4.3%
Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Raphael Warnock
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Abdul El-Sayed
2.2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Abdul El-Sayed
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$281
Trade this on Kalshi
James Talarico
2.2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$187
Trade this on Kalshi
Mark Kelly
2.2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Kelly
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$187
Trade this on Kalshi
Wes Moore
2.1%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wes Moore
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Iowa Democratic Party, Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Jon Ossoff
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
  • Gavin Newsom

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Iowa Democratic presidential caucus winner?". Jon Ossoff leads at 30.5%. Next is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 15.8%. $2K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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