The Prediction Markets

Iowa Governor General Election: voter turnout

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 1.10M 93.5%

Next is Above 1.16M at 90%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 1.10M
93.5%
Kalshi 93.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.10M
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.16M
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.16M
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.22M
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.22M
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.28M
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.28M
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$226
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.34M
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.34M
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.37M
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.37M
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.4M
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.4M
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.46M
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.46M
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.52M
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.52M
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.58M
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.58M
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.64M
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.64M
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Iowa Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 1.10M
  • Above 1.16M
  • Above 1.22M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Iowa Governor General Election: voter turnout". Above 1.10M leads at 93.5%. Next is Above 1.16M at 90%. $1K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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