The Prediction Markets

Iowa Governor margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$109K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Sand, 1+ pts 84%

Next is Sand, 3+ pts at 67%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Sand, 1+ pts
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sand, 1+ pts
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Sand, 3+ pts
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sand, 3+ pts
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sand, 4+ pts
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sand, 4+ pts
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Sand, 6+ pts
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sand, 6+ pts
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sand, 7+ pts
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sand, 7+ pts
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Sand 3-6%
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sand 3-6%
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sand 0-3%
22.9%
Polymarket 22.9%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 22.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $437 (4.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sand 0-3%
Last price
22.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22.9¢
Sell Yes
22.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$437 (4.37x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sand, 9+ pts
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sand, 9+ pts
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sand 6-9%
20%
Polymarket 20%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sand 6-9%
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sand 12%+
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sand 12%+
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 12 more outcomes
Sand, 12+ pts
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sand, 12+ pts
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sand 9-12%
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 10.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $990 (9.90x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sand 9-12%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.1¢
Sell Yes
7.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$990 (9.90x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lahn, 1+ pts
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lahn, 1+ pts
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Lahn, 3+ pts
5.6%
Kalshi 5.6%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lahn, 3+ pts
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.7¢
Sell Yes
5.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,149 (11.5x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lahn, 6+ pts
4.9%
Kalshi 4.9%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lahn, 6+ pts
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lahn 0-3%
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lahn 0-3%
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$863
Trade this on Polymarket
Sand, 15+ pts
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sand, 15+ pts
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lahn, 9+ pts
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lahn, 9+ pts
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lahn 3-6%
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lahn 3-6%
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$788
Trade this on Polymarket
Lahn 6-9%
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lahn 6-9%
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$256
Trade this on Polymarket
Lahn 12%+
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lahn 12%+
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$425
Trade this on Polymarket
Lahn 9-12%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lahn 9-12%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$434
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Iowa Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Sand, 1+ pts
  • Sand, 3+ pts
  • Sand, 4+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Sand, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Iowa Governor margin of victory". Sand, 1+ pts leads at 84%. Next is Sand, 3+ pts at 67%. $109K has traded across 22 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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