The Prediction Markets

Iowa Republican Senate nominee in 2028?

Closes
Nov 7, 2029, in 37 months
Traded
$4K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Chuck Grassley 30.7%

Next is Kim Reynolds at 13.7%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Chuck Grassley 30.7%Kim Reynolds 13.7%Pat Grassley 13.6%Randy Feenstra 13.6%Zach Nunn 11.4%2 others 17%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Chuck Grassley
30.7%
Kalshi 27%(30.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chuck Grassley
Last price
27%
Fair, margin removed
30.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$192
Trade this on Kalshi
Kim Reynolds
13.7%
Kalshi 12%(13.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kim Reynolds
Last price
12%
Fair, margin removed
13.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Pat Grassley
13.6%
Kalshi 12%(13.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pat Grassley
Last price
12%
Fair, margin removed
13.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Randy Feenstra
13.6%
Kalshi 12%(13.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Randy Feenstra
Last price
12%
Fair, margin removed
13.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Zach Nunn
11.4%
Kalshi 10%(11.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zach Nunn
Last price
10%
Fair, margin removed
11.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$9
Trade this on Kalshi
Matt Whitaker
10.2%
Kalshi 9%(10.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Matt Whitaker
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
10.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Kari Lake
6.8%
Kalshi 6%(6.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kari Lake
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
6.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$343
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Republican Party

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Chuck Grassley
  • Kim Reynolds
  • Pat Grassley

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Iowa Republican Senate nominee in 2028?". Chuck Grassley leads at 30.7%. Next is Kim Reynolds at 13.7%. $4K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2029.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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