The Prediction Markets

Iowa Senate margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$141K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Hinson, 1+ pts 44%

Next is Hinson, 2+ pts at 42%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Hinson, 1+ pts
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hinson, 1+ pts
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Hinson, 2+ pts
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hinson, 2+ pts
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Turek, 2+ pts
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Turek, 2+ pts
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hinson 0-3%
32.5%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hinson 0-3%
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Polymarket
Turek 0-3%
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Turek 0-3%
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hinson, 4+ pts
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hinson, 4+ pts
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Turek, 4+ pts
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Turek, 4+ pts
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hinson, 6+ pts
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hinson, 6+ pts
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hinson 3-6%
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hinson 3-6%
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Turek 3-6%
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $735 (7.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Turek 3-6%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13.6¢
Sell Yes
12.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$735 (7.35x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 11 more outcomes
Hinson, 8+ pts
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hinson, 8+ pts
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$677
Trade this on Kalshi
Turek, 6+ pts
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Turek, 6+ pts
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hinson, 10+ pts
6.9%
Kalshi 6.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hinson, 10+ pts
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hinson, 14+ pts
6.1%
Kalshi 6.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hinson, 14+ pts
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$884
Trade this on Kalshi
Turek 6-9%
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Turek 6-9%
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hinson, 12+ pts
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hinson, 12+ pts
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$774
Trade this on Kalshi
Turek 9-12%
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Turek 9-12%
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hinson 6-9%
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hinson 6-9%
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Turek 12%+
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Turek 12%+
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hinson 9-12%
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hinson 9-12%
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hinson 12%+
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hinson 12%+
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Hinson, 1+ pts
  • Hinson, 2+ pts
  • Turek, 2+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Hinson, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Iowa Senate margin of victory". Hinson, 1+ pts leads at 44%. Next is Hinson, 2+ pts at 42%. $141K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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