The Prediction Markets

Iowa's 2nd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$25K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

James, 1+ pts 61%

Next is James, 4+ pts at 47%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
James, 1+ pts
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
James, 1+ pts
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
James, 4+ pts
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
James, 4+ pts
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mitchell, 1+ pts
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mitchell, 1+ pts
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Mitchell, 2+ pts
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mitchell, 2+ pts
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$716
Trade this on Kalshi
James, 7+ pts
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
James, 7+ pts
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-3%
18.4%
Polymarket 18.4%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 19.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $505 (5.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
18.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19.8¢
Sell Yes
16.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$505 (5.05x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 3-6%
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-3%
16.4%
Polymarket 16.4%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 17.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $571 (5.71x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
16.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17.5¢
Sell Yes
15.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$571 (5.71x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mitchell, 5+ pts
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mitchell, 5+ pts
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$220
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 6-9%
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
James, 10+ pts
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
James, 10+ pts
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 3-6%
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mitchell, 11+ pts
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mitchell, 11+ pts
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 6-9%
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6-9%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$557
Trade this on Polymarket
Mitchell, 14+ pts
8.3%
Kalshi 8.3%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mitchell, 14+ pts
Last price
8.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$362
Trade this on Kalshi
Mitchell, 8+ pts
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mitchell, 8+ pts
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
4.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$348
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 12%+
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 9.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,075 (10.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 12%+
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.3¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,075 (10.8x)
Volume
$501
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 9-12%
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 9-12%
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 9-12%
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$921
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 12%+
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12%+
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • James, 1+ pts
  • James, 4+ pts
  • Mitchell, 1+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list James, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Iowa's 2nd District margin of victory". James, 1+ pts leads at 61%. Next is James, 4+ pts at 47%. $25K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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