The Prediction Markets

Iowa's 4th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$23K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

McGowan, 6+ pts 94.4%

Next is McGowan, 9+ pts at 93%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
McGowan, 6+ pts
94.4%
Kalshi 94.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
McGowan, 6+ pts
Last price
94.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
91.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
McGowan, 9+ pts
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
McGowan, 9+ pts
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
McGowan, 12+ pts
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
McGowan, 12+ pts
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
McGowan, 15+ pts
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
McGowan, 15+ pts
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Trade this on Kalshi
McGowan, 18+ pts
63.5%
Kalshi 63.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
McGowan, 18+ pts
Last price
63.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Trade this on Kalshi
McGowan, 21+ pts
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
McGowan, 21+ pts
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Kalshi
McGowan, 24+ pts
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
McGowan, 24+ pts
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
McGowan, 27+ pts
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
McGowan, 27+ pts
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$31
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 10-15%
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $273 (2.73x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
36.6¢
Sell Yes
19.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$273 (2.73x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 20-25%
25.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Republican 15-20%
24%
Polymarket 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
McGowan, 30+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
McGowan, 30+ pts
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
6.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 25-30%
12.2%
Polymarket 12.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
12.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
4.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
McGowan, 33+ pts
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
McGowan, 33+ pts
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$486
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 35%+
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $621 (6.21x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35%+
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16.1¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$621 (6.21x)
Volume
$455
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30-35%
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$436
Trade this on Polymarket
McGowan, 36+ pts
4.1%
Kalshi 4.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,220 (12.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
McGowan, 36+ pts
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,220 (12.2x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-5%
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$375
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 5-10%
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$413
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • McGowan, 6+ pts
  • McGowan, 9+ pts
  • McGowan, 12+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list McGowan, 6+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Iowa's 4th District margin of victory". McGowan, 6+ pts leads at 94.4%. Next is McGowan, 9+ pts at 93%. $23K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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