The Prediction Markets

IPOs before 2027?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$7.6M
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Anthropic 85%

Next is Celonis at 7.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Anthropic
85%
Polymarket 85%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anthropic
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$676K
Trade this on Polymarket
Celonis
7.9%
Polymarket 7.9%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Celonis
Last price
7.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$211K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rippling
7.2%
Polymarket 7.2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 11.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $840 (8.40x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rippling
Last price
7.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.9¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$840 (8.40x)
Volume
$122K
Trade this on Polymarket
Discord
6.3%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Discord
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$492K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ledger
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 10.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $971 (9.71x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ledger
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.3¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$971 (9.71x)
Volume
$515K
Trade this on Polymarket
Freddie Mac
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Freddie Mac
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$246K
Trade this on Polymarket
Perplexity
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Perplexity
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$153
Trade this on Polymarket
Remote
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Remote
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$57K
Trade this on Polymarket
Revolut
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Revolut
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$62K
Trade this on Polymarket
Applied Intuition
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Applied Intuition
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$207K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 19 more outcomes
OpenAI
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$609K
Trade this on Polymarket
Fannie Mae
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fannie Mae
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$182K
Trade this on Polymarket
Anysphere (Cursor)
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anysphere (Cursor)
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$107K
Trade this on Polymarket
Canva
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Canva
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$40K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ripple Labs
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ripple Labs
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$159K
Trade this on Polymarket
ByteDance
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
ByteDance
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ramp
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ramp
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$158K
Trade this on Polymarket
Stripe
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stripe
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$269K
Trade this on Polymarket
Databricks
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Databricks
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$495K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mistral AI
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mistral AI
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$167K
Trade this on Polymarket
Anduril Industries
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anduril Industries
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$58K
Trade this on Polymarket
Waymo
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Waymo
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$55K
Trade this on Polymarket
Anduril
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anduril
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$365K
Trade this on Polymarket
Epic Games
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Epic Games
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$99K
Trade this on Polymarket
WHOOP
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
WHOOP
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Vanta
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vanta
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$150K
Trade this on Polymarket
Glean
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Glean
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$52K
Trade this on Polymarket
Brex
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brex
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$222K
Trade this on Polymarket
Deel
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Deel
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$136K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Anthropic
  • Celonis
  • Rippling

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "IPOs before 2027?". Anthropic leads at 85%. Next is Celonis at 7.9%. $7.6M has traded across 29 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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