The Prediction Markets

ISM Manufacturing PMI in May 2026

Closed
Jun 1, 2026
Traded
$11K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 1, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 158 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 49
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 49
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$338
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 50
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 50
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$429
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 51
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 51
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 52
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 52
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$364
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 53
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 53
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$360
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 54
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 54
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 55
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 55
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 56
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 3814 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 56
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange)

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 49
  • At least 50
  • At least 51

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "ISM Manufacturing PMI in May 2026". At least 49 last traded at 89%. Next is At least 50 at 84%. $11K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Jun 1, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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