The Prediction Markets

ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026

Closes
Nov 2, 2026, in 10 days
Traded
$24K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

53.0 to 53.9 34%

Next is 54.0 to 54.9 at 31.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

53.0 to 53.9 34%54.0 to 54.9 31.9%55.0 to 55.9 15.4%56.0 to 56.9 13.9%52.0 to 52.9 1.5%5 others 3.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
53.0 to 53.9
34%
Polymarket 32%(34% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
53.0 to 53.9
Last price
32%
Fair, margin removed
34%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
54.0 to 54.9
31.9%
Polymarket 30%(31.9% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
54.0 to 54.9
Last price
30%
Fair, margin removed
31.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
55.0 to 55.9
15.4%
Polymarket 14.5%(15.4% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
55.0 to 55.9
Last price
14.5%
Fair, margin removed
15.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
56.0 to 56.9
13.9%
Polymarket 13.1%(13.9% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 13.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $758 (7.58x)
Polymarket
Contract
56.0 to 56.9
Last price
13.1%
Fair, margin removed
13.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
13.2¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$758 (7.58x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
52.0 to 52.9
1.5%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
52.0 to 52.9
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
59.0+
1.2%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
59.0+
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$430
Trade this on Polymarket
51.0 to 51.9
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
51.0 to 51.9
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
57.0 to 57.9
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
57.0 to 57.9
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$938
Trade this on Polymarket
58.0 to 58.9
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
58.0 to 58.9
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$513
Trade this on Polymarket
51.0
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
51.0
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$429
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 53.0 to 53.9
  • 54.0 to 54.9
  • 55.0 to 55.9

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026". 53.0 to 53.9 leads at 34%. Next is 54.0 to 54.9 at 31.9%. $24K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 2, 2026.

This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for October 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business. The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for October 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on November 2, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets. Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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