The Prediction Markets

Israel Election: The Joint List vote share?

Closes
Nov 30, 2026, in 39 days
Traded
$22K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

At least 30% 95%

Next is At least 34% at 84%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
At least 30%
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 30%
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$760
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 34%
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 34%
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 38%
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 38%
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 42%
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 42%
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$276
Trade this on Kalshi
6.5-7.5%
36%
Polymarket 36%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
6.5-7.5%
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
At least 46%
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 46%
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.5-6.5%
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.5-6.5%
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.5-5.5%
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.5-5.5%
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
At least 50%
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 50%
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$784
Trade this on Kalshi
7.5%+
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
7.5%+
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$868
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 3 more outcomes
At least 54%
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 54%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 58%
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 58%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
4.5%
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.5%
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$678
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: bechirot.gov.il
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (RIK)

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 30%
  • At least 34%
  • At least 38%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list At least 30% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Israel Election: The Joint List vote share?". At least 30% leads at 95%. Next is At least 34% at 84%. $22K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 30, 2026.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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