The Prediction Markets

Israel Election: Yashar vote share?

Closes
Oct 27, 2026, in 4 days
Traded
$9K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

16% 36.9%

Next is 16-18% at 29.1%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

16% 36.9%16-18% 29.1%20-22% 19.5%18-20% 11.5%24%+ 1.9%22-24% 1.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
16%
36.9%
Polymarket 38.5%(36.9% fair)polled, 49s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
16%
Last price
38.5%
Fair, margin removed
36.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
16-18%
29.1%
Polymarket 30.4%(29.1% fair)polled, 49s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
16-18%
Last price
30.4%
Fair, margin removed
29.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
22.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$476
Trade this on Polymarket
20-22%
19.5%
Polymarket 20.4%(19.5% fair)polled, 49s agoBest Yes 23.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $429 (4.29x)
Polymarket
Contract
20-22%
Last price
20.4%
Fair, margin removed
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23.3¢
Sell Yes
17.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$429 (4.29x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
18-20%
11.5%
Polymarket 12%(11.5% fair)polled, 49s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
18-20%
Last price
12%
Fair, margin removed
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
24%+
1.9%
Polymarket 2%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
24%+
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
22-24%
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
22-24%
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$264
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: bechirot.gov.il

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 16%
  • 16-18%
  • 20-22%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Israel Election: Yashar vote share?". 16% leads at 36.9%. Next is 16-18% at 29.1%. $9K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2026.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yashar passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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