The Prediction Markets

Israel Katz out as Israeli defense minister?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$115K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Before 2027 38%

Next is No Next Minister by Feb 28 at 37.6%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 7 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Before 2027
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before 2027
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
No Next Minister by Feb 28
37.6%
Polymarket 37.6%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 38.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $260 (2.60x)
Polymarket
Contract
No Next Minister by Feb 28
Last price
37.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38.5¢
Sell Yes
36.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$260 (2.60x)
Volume
$52K
Trade this on Polymarket
Avigdor Lieberman
20.6%
Polymarket 20.6%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Avigdor Lieberman
Last price
20.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
Naftali Bennett
19.3%
Polymarket 19.3%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Naftali Bennett
Last price
19.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ofer Winter
6.3%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ofer Winter
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Israel Katz
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Israel Katz
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bezalel Smotrich
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bezalel Smotrich
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gadi Eizenkot
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gadi Eizenkot
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$947
Trade this on Polymarket
Itamar Ben Gvir
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Itamar Ben Gvir
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$930
Trade this on Polymarket
Yair Lapid
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yair Lapid
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$502
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Yoram Cohen
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yoram Cohen
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$611
Trade this on Polymarket
Elazar Stern
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elazar Stern
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Yair Golan
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yair Golan
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$836
Trade this on Polymarket
Benjamin Netanyahu
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$472
Trade this on Polymarket
Amir Ohana
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amir Ohana
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$206
Trade this on Polymarket
Benny Gantz
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Benny Gantz
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Yoaz Hendel
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yoaz Hendel
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$162
Trade this on Polymarket
Moshe Feiglin
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Moshe Feiglin
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$724
Trade this on Polymarket
Eli Cohen
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Eli Cohen
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$607
Trade this on Polymarket
Matan Kahana
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matan Kahana
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$942
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Israel Ministry of Defense, The New York Times, the Associated Press

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before 2027
  • No Next Minister by Feb 28
  • Avigdor Lieberman

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Before 2027 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Israel Katz out as Israeli defense minister?". Before 2027 leads at 38%. Next is No Next Minister by Feb 28 at 37.6%. $115K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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