The Prediction Markets

Israeli Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place

Closes
Oct 27, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$66K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Likud 66.6%

Next is Labor at 49%. The venues differ most on Shas (Polymarket 0.1%, Kalshi 2%), a 1.9-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Likud
66.6%
Polymarket 66.5%polled, 57s agoKalshi 67%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
Likud
Last price
66.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Likud
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 65¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 70¢.

Labor
49%
Polymarket 68.5%polled, 57s agoPolymarket 17.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Labor
Last price
68.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Labor
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Liberal–National
31.4%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 57s agoPolymarket 39.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $465 (4.65x)
Polymarket
Contract
Liberal–National
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21.5¢
Sell Yes
15.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$465 (4.65x)
Volume
$928
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Liberal–National
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Yashar
30.6%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 57s agoKalshi 31%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yashar
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yashar
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 29¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 31¢.

One Nation
15.7%
Polymarket 14%polled, 57s agoPolymarket 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $437 (4.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
One Nation
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22.9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$437 (4.37x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
One Nation
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$504
Trade this on Polymarket
Greens
4.7%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 57s agoPolymarket 7.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Greens
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$424
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Greens
Last price
7.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$671 (6.71x)
Volume
$601
Trade this on Polymarket
Together
4%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 57s agoKalshi 5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Together
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Together
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Religious Zionist Party–Zehut
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Religious Zionist Party–Zehut
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Reservists and the Economic Party
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reservists–New Economic Party
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Joint List (Hadash–Ta'al–Balad)
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joint List (Hadash–Ta'al–Balad)
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 22 more outcomes
United Torah Judaism
1.2%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 57s agoKalshi 2%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
United Torah Judaism
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$411
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
United Torah Judaism
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

A Place for All of Us
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
A Place for All of Us
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Haredi Public
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haredi Public
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Israel First
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Israel First
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
New Economic Party
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
New Economic Party
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Noam for Israel
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Noam for Israel
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
People of Israel
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
People of Israel
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Religious Zionist Party
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Religious Zionist Party
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Unity
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Unity
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Zehut
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zehut
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Zionist Home–The Reservists
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zionist Home–The Reservists
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Shas
0.9%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 57s agoKalshi 2%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shas
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$552
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Shas
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Ra'am
0.8%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 57s agoKalshi 1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ra'am
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$231
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ra'am
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Blue and White
0.8%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 57s agoKalshi 1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Blue and White
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$281
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Blue and White
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Yisrael Beiteinu
0.8%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 57s agoKalshi 2%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yisrael Beiteinu
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$659
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yisrael Beiteinu
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Otzma Yehudit
0.6%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 57s agoKalshi 2%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Otzma Yehudit
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Otzma Yehudit
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

The Democrats
0.6%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 57s agoKalshi 2%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Democrats
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Democrats
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Amcha Yisrael
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amcha Yisrael
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$231
Trade this on Polymarket
Noam
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Noam
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$332
Trade this on Polymarket
The Reservists and the Economic Party
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Reservists and the Economic Party
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Joint List
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joint List
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$824
Trade this on Polymarket
RZP-Zehut
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
RZP-Zehut
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$874
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 28, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 27, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: vec.vic.gov.au
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Central Elections Committee
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Oct 28, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 27, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Likud
  • Labor
  • Liberal–National

Live prices for Likud

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Israeli Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place". Likud leads at 66.6%. Next is Labor at 49%. $66K has traded across 32 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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