The Prediction Markets

Jackson Flora: Debut Date

Closes
Nov 1, 2031, in 61 months
Traded
$4K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Before Nov 1, 2031 84%

Next is Before Nov 1, 2030 at 82%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Before Nov 1, 2031
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2031
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Nov 1, 2030
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2030
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$17
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Nov 1, 2029
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2029
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$533
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Aug 1, 2030
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Aug 1, 2030
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$326
Trade this on Kalshi
Before May 1, 2030
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before May 1, 2030
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$296
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Aug 1, 2029
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Aug 1, 2029
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$749
Trade this on Kalshi
Before May 1, 2029
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before May 1, 2029
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$788
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Nov 1, 2028
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2028
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, the Governing League

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Nov 1, 2031
  • Before Nov 1, 2030
  • Before Nov 1, 2029

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Jackson Flora: Debut Date". Before Nov 1, 2031 leads at 84%. Next is Before Nov 1, 2030 at 82%. $4K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2031.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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