The Prediction Markets

Jacquet vs Nakashima

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$115K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 21.5 100%

Next is Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 21.5 at 99.6%. The venues differ most on Jacquet (Polymarket 14.5%, Kalshi 13%), a 1.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 21.5
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 34s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
100%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 21.5
99.6%
Polymarket 99.6%polled, 34s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
99.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.1¢
Trade this on Polymarket
Brandon Nakashima
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brandon Nakashima
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$56K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 21.5
68.5%
Polymarket 68.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Brandon Nakashima (-1.5) vs Kyrian Jacquet (+1.5)
Last price
68.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 21.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 34s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 22.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
54¢
Volume
$968
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 21.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 34s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 21.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 34s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 21.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 34s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 21.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 34s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Game Spread +/-1.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
1¢
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
48.5%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$420
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 21.5
48.5%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 21.5
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 21.5
35%
Polymarket 35%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 23.5
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 21.5
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Set 2 Winner
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 21.5
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$30
Trade this on Polymarket
JacquetArb
13.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 34s agoKalshi 13%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kyrian Jacquet
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$37K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 13¢ and selling on Polymarket at 14¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 21.5
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 34s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Set 1 Winner
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 21.5
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 34s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$76
Trade this on Polymarket
Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 21.5
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Kyrian Jacquet (-1.5) vs Brandon Nakashima (+1.5)
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Jacquet on Kalshi at 13¢, sell on Polymarket at 14¢ (100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Oct 29, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 5, 2026, 10:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 21.5
  • Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 21.5
  • Brandon Nakashima

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 21.5 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Jacquet vs Nakashima". Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 21.5 leads at 100%. Next is Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 21.5 at 99.6%. $115K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 5, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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