The Prediction Markets

Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026

Closes
Jan 22, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$484K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 2.0% 99%

Next is Above 2.1% at 98%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 2.0%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.0%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.1%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 98%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.1%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.1%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.2%
97.8%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 96%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.2%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.2%
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.3%
97.3%
Kalshi 98%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 96%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.3%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.3%
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.4%
97.3%
Kalshi 98%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 96%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.4%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.4%
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.5%
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 95%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.5%
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.5%
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.6%
89%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 88%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.6%
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.6%
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.7%
79.7%
Kalshi 78%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 81%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.7%
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.7%
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
2.0-2.4%
69.3%
Polymarket 69.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 69.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.0-2.4%
Last price
69.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
69.8¢
Sell Yes
68.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 2.8%
61%
Kalshi 58%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 64%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.8%
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.8%
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 28 more outcomes
Above 2.9%
36.5%
Kalshi 33%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 47%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.9%
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$48K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.9%
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
1.9%
27.2%
Polymarket 27.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 28.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $346 (3.46x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.9%
Last price
27.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
28.9¢
Sell Yes
25.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$346 (3.46x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 3.0%
25.2%
Kalshi 22%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 27%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.0%
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.0%
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 2.8%
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.8%
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$600
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 2.9%
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.9%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 2.7%
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.7%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$623
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.1%
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.1%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.0%
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.0%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.1%
12.1%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 13%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.1%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.1%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 2.6%
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.6%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$500
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 2.5%
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.5%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.2%
6.4%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.2%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.2%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.2%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.2%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.3%
4%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.3%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.3%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 2.4%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.4%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.3%
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.3%
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.4%
3%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.4%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.4%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 2.2%
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.2%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 2.3%
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.3%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.4%
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.4%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.5%
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.5%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.6%
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.6%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.7%
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.7%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.5%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.5%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.5%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
2.5-2.9%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.5-2.9%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.0-3.4%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.0-3.4%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.5-3.9%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.5-3.9%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.0%+
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.0%+
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: stat.go.jp
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 2.0%
  • Above 2.1%
  • Above 2.2%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 2.0% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026". Above 2.0% leads at 99%. Next is Above 2.1% at 98%. $484K has traded across 38 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 22, 2027.

This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ). The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure. If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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