The Prediction Markets

Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

Closes
Nov 16, 2026, in 23 days
Traded
$488K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above -0.4% 76.2%

Next is Above 0.0% at 76%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above -0.4%
76.2%
Kalshi 87%polled, 60s agoKalshi 44%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above -0.4%
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$66
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.4%
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.0%
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.0%
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Above -0.2%
69.8%
Kalshi 81.5%polled, 60s agoKalshi 58%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above -0.2%
Last price
81.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.2%
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
2.1% to 2.5%
50.1%
Kalshi 50.1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
2.1% to 2.5%
Last price
50.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
50.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Kalshi
0.0%–0.8%
25.8%
Polymarket 25.8%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 26.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $376 (3.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.0%–0.8%
Last price
25.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26.6¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$376 (3.76x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.8%–0.0%
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.8%–0.0%
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.6%– -0.8%
20.2%
Polymarket 20.2%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 21.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $472 (4.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.6%– -0.8%
Last price
20.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21.2¢
Sell Yes
19.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$472 (4.72x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.8%–1.6%
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.8%–1.6%
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.6% to 2.0%
16.1%
Kalshi 16.1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 20.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $478 (4.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
1.6% to 2.0%
Last price
16.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20.9¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$478 (4.78x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.6%
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.6%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 21 more outcomes
2.6% to 3.0%
14.5%
Kalshi 14.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 14.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $690 (6.90x)
Kalshi
Contract
2.6% to 3.0%
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.5¢
Sell Yes
12.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$690 (6.90x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
1.6%–2.4%
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.6%–2.4%
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 1.0%
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.0%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$372
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.8%
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.8%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
2.4%– -1.6%
5.4%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.4%– -1.6%
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.1% to 3.5%
4.9%
Kalshi 4.9%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
3.1% to 3.5%
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$47K
Trade this on Kalshi
2.4%–3.2%
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.4%–3.2%
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.7¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,149 (11.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.4%
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.4%
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 1.2%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.2%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.0%+
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.0%+
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$816
Trade this on Polymarket
1.1% to 1.5%
3.1%
Kalshi 3.1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
1.1% to 1.5%
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
3.2%–4.0%
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.2%–4.0%
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.1% to 0.5%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
0.1% to 0.5%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
0.0% or Below
0.9%
Kalshi 0.9%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kalshi
Contract
0.0% or Below
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$49K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.1% to 4.5%
0.9%
Kalshi 0.9%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.1% to 4.5%
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$44K
Trade this on Kalshi
0.6% to 1.0%
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Kalshi
Contract
0.6% to 1.0%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.6% to 5.0%
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.6% to 5.0%
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Kalshi
6.1% or Above
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
Contract
6.1% or Above
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
3.6% to 4.0%
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
3.6% to 4.0%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$36K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.1% to 5.5%
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.1% to 5.5%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.6% to 6.0%
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.6% to 6.0%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: esri.cao.go.jp
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Trading Economics

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above -0.4%
  • Above 0.0%
  • Above -0.2%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above -0.4% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?". Above -0.4% leads at 76.2%. Next is Above 0.0% at 76%. $488K has traded across 31 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 16, 2026.

This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026. The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More economics markets

See all economics markets