The Prediction Markets

Japan inflation rate MoM for April

Closed
May 21, 2026
Traded
$6K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 21, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above -0.3%
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above -0.3%
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above -0.2%
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above -0.2%
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$796
Trade this on Kalshi
Above -0.1%
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above -0.1%
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$296
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.0%
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.0%
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.1%
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.1%
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$171
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.2%
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.2%
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$550
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.3%
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.3%
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.4%
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.4%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.5%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.5%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$191
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange)

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above -0.3%
  • Above -0.2%
  • Above -0.1%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Japan inflation rate MoM for April". Above -0.3% last traded at 93%. Next is Above -0.2% at 88%. $6K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on May 21, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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