The Prediction Markets

Japanese Grand Prix: Which Constructor Scores 1st?

Closed
Apr 5, 2026
Traded
$24K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 5, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 209 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Mercedes
99.5%
Polymarket 100%polled, 5038 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Mercedes
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 209 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alpine
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5038 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alpine
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 209 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Aston Martin
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5038 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aston Martin
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 209 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Audi Revolut
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5038 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Audi Revolut
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 209 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$725
Trade this on Polymarket
Cadillac
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5038 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cadillac
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 209 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ferrari
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5038 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ferrari
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 209 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mclaren Mastercard
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5038 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mclaren Mastercard
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 209 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Red Bull
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5038 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Red Bull
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 209 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Red Bull
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5038 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Racing Bulls
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 209 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tgr Haas
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5038 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tgr Haas
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 209 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$623
Trade this on Polymarket
Williams
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5038 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Williams
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 209 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: formula1.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Mercedes
  • Alpine
  • Aston Martin

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Japanese Grand Prix: Which Constructor Scores 1st?". Mercedes last traded at 99.5%. Next is Alpine at 0.1%. $24K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to the constructor team that collects the most points at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, currently scheduled for Mar 29, 2026. In the case of a tie between two teams for most points, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. As soon as the results for this event are known, this market will resolve. If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 5, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1 (F1).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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