The Prediction Markets

Jean-Michel Basquiat's “Untitled (Leonardo and His Five Grotesque Heads)” Sale Price

Closes
Nov 20, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$1K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

40m-$50m 34.9%

Next is 30m-$40m at 31%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

40m-$50m 34.9%30m-$40m 31%50m-$60m 14.7%60m+ 14.4%30m 5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
40m-$50m
34.9%
Polymarket 45%(34.9% fair)polled, 19s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
40m-$50m
Last price
45%
Fair, margin removed
34.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$386
Trade this on Polymarket
30m-$40m
31%
Polymarket 40%(31% fair)polled, 19s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
30m-$40m
Last price
40%
Fair, margin removed
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$567
Trade this on Polymarket
50m-$60m
14.7%
Polymarket 19%(14.7% fair)polled, 19s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
50m-$60m
Last price
19%
Fair, margin removed
14.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket
60m+
14.4%
Polymarket 18.5%(14.3% fair)polled, 19s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
60m+
Last price
18.5%
Fair, margin removed
14.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket
30m
5%
Polymarket 6.5%(5% fair)polled, 19s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
30m
Last price
6.5%
Fair, margin removed
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 40m-$50m
  • 30m-$40m
  • 50m-$60m

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

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Depth · top 8 levels

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Jean-Michel Basquiat's “Untitled (Leonardo and His Five Grotesque Heads)” Sale Price". 40m-$50m leads at 34.9%. Next is 30m-$40m at 31%. $1K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 20, 2026.

Jean-Michel Basquiat's “Untitled (Leonardo and His Five Grotesque Heads)” (Lot 34B) is expected to be sold at Christie's 21st Century Evening Sale on November 19, 2026. This market will resolve according to the final auction sale price paid for Jean-Michel Basquiat's “Untitled (Leonardo and His Five Grotesque Heads)”. If the final sale price falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no sale is completed, or the sale price is not known definitively, by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "<$30m". The market will resolve according to the final listed “Price Realised” on Christie's (https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-6614158).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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Jean-Michel Basquiat's “Untitled (Leonardo and His Five Grotesque Heads)” Sale Price Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Markets