The Prediction Markets

Jessica Tisch out as New York City Police Commissioner by...?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$35K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Before Jan 1, 2028 38%

Next is Before Jul 1, 2027 at 26%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2028
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2028
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jul 1, 2027
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jul 1, 2027
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
December 31
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Jan 1, 2027
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Jan 1, 2028
  • Before Jul 1, 2027
  • December 31

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Before Jan 1, 2028 for this event.

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Jessica Tisch out as New York City Police Commissioner by...?". Before Jan 1, 2028 leads at 38%. Next is Before Jul 1, 2027 at 26%. $35K has traded across 4 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jessica Tisch’s departure as New York City Police Commissioner is officially announced by the specified date at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise it will resolve to "No". The departure will be considered to be announced when Jessica Tisch, the New York City Police Department, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Jessica Tisch has ceased or will cease to hold the position of New York City Police Commissioner. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify. The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if specified conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify. If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify. If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date at 11:59PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Jessica Tisch and the City of New York; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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