The Prediction Markets

Jobs numbers in May 2026?

Closed
Jun 5, 2026
Traded
$127K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 5, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 50,000
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 3816 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above -50,000
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above -25,000
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 3816 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above -25,000
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above -10,000
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 3816 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above -10,000
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 3816 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 20,000
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 3816 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 20,000
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above -10,000
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 3816 h agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10,000
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$231
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 30,000
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 3816 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 30,000
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 40,000
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 3816 h agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 40,000
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 50,000
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 3816 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 50,000
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 60,000
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 3816 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 60,000
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Above 70,000
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 3816 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 70,000
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 80,000
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 3816 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 80,000
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 90,000
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 3816 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 90,000
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 100,000
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 3816 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 100,000
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 110,000
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 3816 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 110,000
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 125,000
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 3816 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 125,000
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 150,000
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 3816 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 150,000
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange)

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 50,000
  • Above -25,000
  • Above -10,000

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Jobs numbers in May 2026?". Above 50,000 last traded at 96%. Next is Above -25,000 at 89%. $127K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Jun 5, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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