The Prediction Markets

Jobs numbers in Nov 2026?

Closes
Dec 4, 2026, in 42 days
Traded
$7K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above -25,000 88%

Next is Above 0 at 79%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above -25,000
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above -25,000
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$889
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$525
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10,000
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10,000
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$346
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 20,000
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 20,000
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$273
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 30,000
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 30,000
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$699
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 40,000
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 40,000
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$270
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 50,000
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 50,000
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$584
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 60,000
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 60,000
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$538
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 70,000
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 70,000
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$311
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 80,000
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 80,000
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$443
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 3 more outcomes
Above 90,000
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 90,000
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$707
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 100,000
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 100,000
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$84
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 125,000
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 125,000
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: BLS

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above -25,000
  • Above 0
  • Above 10,000

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Jobs numbers in Nov 2026?". Above -25,000 leads at 88%. Next is Above 0 at 79%. $7K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 4, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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