The Prediction Markets

Jobs numbers in October 2026?

Closes
Nov 6, 2026, in 14 days
Traded
$135K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above -25,000 94%

Next is Above 0 at 85%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above -25,000
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above -25,000
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10,000
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10,000
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 20,000
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 20,000
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 30,000
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 30,000
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 40,000
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 40,000
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 50,000
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 50,000
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 60,000
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 60,000
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 70,000
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 70,000
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 80,000
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 80,000
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 3 more outcomes
Above 90,000
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 90,000
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 100,000
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 100,000
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 125,000
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 125,000
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: BLS

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above -25,000
  • Above 0
  • Above 10,000

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Jobs numbers in October 2026?". Above -25,000 leads at 94%. Next is Above 0 at 85%. $135K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 6, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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