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What the markets expect
Minnesota 55.9%
Next is Atlanta at 4.2%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Minnesota55.9%80%55.9% fair80¢ bid, 91¢ askpolled, 50s ago91¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $110 (1.10x)Minnesota55.9%Kalshi 80%(55.9% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Minnesota
55.9%
80%
55.9% fair
80¢ bid, 91¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
91¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Minnesota
55.9%
Kalshi 80%(55.9% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Minnesota
- Last price
- 80%
- Fair, margin removed
- 55.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 91¢
- Sell Yes
- 80¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $110 (1.10x)
- Volume
- $14K
Atlanta4.2%6%4.2% fair1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 50s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Atlanta4.2%Kalshi 6%(4.2% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Atlanta
4.2%
6%
4.2% fair
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Atlanta
4.2%
Kalshi 6%(4.2% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Atlanta
- Last price
- 6%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $865
Milwaukee3.5%5%3.5% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 50s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Milwaukee3.5%Kalshi 5%(3.5% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Milwaukee
3.5%
5%
3.5% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Milwaukee
3.5%
Kalshi 5%(3.5% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Milwaukee
- Last price
- 5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $304
New York Y3.5%5%3.5% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 50s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)New York Y3.5%Kalshi 5%(3.5% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
New York Y
3.5%
5%
3.5% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
New York Y
3.5%
Kalshi 5%(3.5% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- New York Y
- Last price
- 5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $400
Tampa Bay3.5%5%3.5% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 50s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Tampa Bay3.5%Kalshi 5%(3.5% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Tampa Bay
3.5%
5%
3.5% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Tampa Bay
3.5%
Kalshi 5%(3.5% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tampa Bay
- Last price
- 5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $460
Toronto3.5%5%3.5% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 50s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Toronto3.5%Kalshi 5%(3.5% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Toronto
3.5%
5%
3.5% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Toronto
3.5%
Kalshi 5%(3.5% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Toronto
- Last price
- 5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $241
Chicago WS2.8%4%2.8% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 50s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Chicago WS2.8%Kalshi 4%(2.8% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Chicago WS
2.8%
4%
2.8% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Chicago WS
2.8%
Kalshi 4%(2.8% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Chicago WS
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $995
Philadelphia2.1%3%2.1% fair— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 50s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Philadelphia2.1%Kalshi 3%(2.1% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Philadelphia
2.1%
3%
2.1% fair
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Philadelphia
2.1%
Kalshi 3%(2.1% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Philadelphia
- Last price
- 3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $397
San Diego2.1%3%2.1% fair— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 50s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)San Diego2.1%Kalshi 3%(2.1% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
San Diego
2.1%
3%
2.1% fair
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
San Diego
2.1%
Kalshi 3%(2.1% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- San Diego
- Last price
- 3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $868
Texas2.1%3%2.1% fair— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 50s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Texas2.1%Kalshi 3%(2.1% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Texas
2.1%
3%
2.1% fair
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Texas
2.1%
Kalshi 3%(2.1% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Texas
- Last price
- 3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $286
Show 21 more outcomesHide 21 outcomes
Washington2.1%3%2.1% fair— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 50s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Washington2.1%Kalshi 3%(2.1% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Washington
2.1%
3%
2.1% fair
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Washington
2.1%
Kalshi 3%(2.1% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Washington
- Last price
- 3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $515
Chicago C1.4%2%1.4% fair2¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 50s ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Chicago C1.4%Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Chicago C
1.4%
2%
1.4% fair
2¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Chicago C
1.4%
Kalshi 2%(1.4% fair)polled, 50s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Chicago C
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $2K
A's0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 50s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)A's0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
A's
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
A's
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- A's
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $74
Arizona0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 50s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Arizona0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Arizona
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Arizona
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Arizona
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $74
Baltimore0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 50s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Baltimore0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Baltimore
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Baltimore
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Baltimore
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $74
Boston0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 50s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Boston0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Boston
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Boston
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Boston
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $170
Cincinnati0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 50s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Cincinnati0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Cincinnati
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Cincinnati
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cincinnati
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $74
Cleveland0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 50s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Cleveland0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Cleveland
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Cleveland
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cleveland
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $74
Colorado0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 50s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Colorado0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Colorado
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Colorado
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Colorado
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $75
Detroit0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 50s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Detroit0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Detroit
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Detroit
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Detroit
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $314
Houston0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 50s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Houston0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Houston
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Houston
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Houston
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $320
Kansas City0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 50s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Kansas City0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kansas City
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kansas City
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kansas City
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $67
Los Angeles A0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 50s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Los Angeles A0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Los Angeles A
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Los Angeles A
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Los Angeles A
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $74
Los Angeles D0.7%1%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 50s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Los Angeles D0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Los Angeles D
0.7%
1%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Los Angeles D
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Los Angeles D
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $569
Miami0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 50s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Miami0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Miami
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Miami
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Miami
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $317
New York M0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 50s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)New York M0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
New York M
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
New York M
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- New York M
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $723
Pittsburgh0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 50s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Pittsburgh0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Pittsburgh
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Pittsburgh
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Pittsburgh
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $163
Retires / No Team0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 50s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Retires / No Team0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Retires / No Team
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Retires / No Team
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Retires / No Team
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $67
San Francisco0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 50s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)San Francisco0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
San Francisco
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
San Francisco
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- San Francisco
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $64
Seattle0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 50s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Seattle0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Seattle
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Seattle
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Seattle
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $319
St. Louis0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 50s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)St. Louis0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
St. Louis
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 50s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
St. Louis
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- St. Louis
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $170
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fox Sports, ESPN
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Minnesota
- Atlanta
- Milwaukee
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Joe Ryan's Next Team". Minnesota leads at 55.9%. Next is Atlanta at 4.2%. $25K has traded across 31 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 25, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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