The Prediction Markets

Jumper FDV one day after launch?

Closes
Jan 2, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$244K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

60M 95.6%

Next is 75M at 86%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
60M
95.6%
Polymarket 95.6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 95.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
60M
Last price
95.6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
95.9¢
Sell Yes
95.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
75M
86%
Polymarket 86%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 88.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $113 (1.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
75M
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
88.7¢
Sell Yes
83.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$113 (1.13x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
100M
74%
Polymarket 74%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
100M
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
150M
43.5%
Polymarket 43.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
150M
Last price
43.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
5,000,000,000+
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
5,000,000,000+
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$50K
Trade this on Kalshi
2,000,000,000+
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
2,000,000,000+
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$112K
Trade this on Kalshi
200M
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
200M
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
8,000,000,000+
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
8,000,000,000+
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
300M
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
300M
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
10,000,000,000+
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
10,000,000,000+
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
15,000,000,000+
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
15,000,000,000+
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
12,000,000,000+
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
12,000,000,000+
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: x.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CoinGecko

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 60M
  • 75M
  • 100M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 60M for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Jumper FDV one day after launch?". 60M leads at 95.6%. Next is 75M at 86%. $244K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 2, 2028.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Jumper's token is greater than the listed value at the measurement time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A token is considered launched the first time it is actively and publicly tradable. The measurement time is 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The FDV is the token price at the measurement time multiplied by the token's total supply at that time, which includes tokens that are locked, vested or otherwise non-circulating. For a token issued by a contract, the total supply is the figure recorded by that contract onchain; for the native coin of its own blockchain, it is the figure recorded by that blockchain. Tokens not yet minted or issued at the measurement time are not counted. The FDV is computed without rounding. Only an official token launched by Jumper after the creation of this market will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not be considered for resolution. An FDV exactly equal to the listed value will resolve to "No". If Jumper (https://x.com/jumperapp) does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for the token price is the final "Close" price of the 1-minute candle ending at the measurement time, taken from the venue with the highest 24-hour trading volume for the token at the measurement time, as ranked on the token's markets page on CoinGecko (https://www.coingecko.com); the ranking as displayed at that time governs, regardless of any subsequent revision. Both centralized exchanges and onchain pools qualify as venues; where a venue lists several pairs, the USD or USD-stablecoin pair with the highest 24-hour volume is used. Where the selected venue is an onchain pool, the candle is taken from that pool's page on DexScreener (https://dexscreener.com); where it is an exchange, from that exchange's own chart for the selected pair. If that chart shows no 1-minute candle ending at the measurement time, the last 1-minute candle closing before that time will be used. If CoinGecko does not list the token at the measurement time, the token's most liquid pool as ranked by the "Liquidity" figure on DexScreener will be used instead. If neither source is available at the measurement time, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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