The Prediction Markets

Junior Eurovision Winner 2026

Closes
Aug 1, 2027, in 9 months
Traded
$13K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Armenia 39.5%

Next is Spain at 24.1%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Armenia
39.5%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Armenia
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$802
Trade this on Polymarket
Spain
24.1%
Polymarket 24.1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 39.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $251 (2.51x)
Polymarket
Contract
Spain
Last price
24.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39.8¢
Sell Yes
8.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$251 (2.51x)
Volume
$435
Trade this on Polymarket
Malta
17.9%
Polymarket 17.9%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 35.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $282 (2.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
Malta
Last price
17.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$282 (2.82x)
Volume
$424
Trade this on Polymarket
Ukraine
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ukraine
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ireland
14.4%
Polymarket 14.4%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 28.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $352 (3.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ireland
Last price
14.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$352 (3.52x)
Volume
$420
Trade this on Polymarket
France
12.9%
Polymarket 12.9%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
France
Last price
12.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
6.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$617
Trade this on Polymarket
Georgia
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Georgia
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$633
Trade this on Polymarket
Poland
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Poland
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$537
Trade this on Polymarket
North Macedonia
8.8%
Polymarket 8.8%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 14.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $680 (6.80x)
Polymarket
Contract
North Macedonia
Last price
8.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.7¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$680 (6.80x)
Volume
$447
Trade this on Polymarket
Cyprus
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cyprus
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$440
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
San Marino
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
San Marino
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$485
Trade this on Polymarket
Croatia
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Croatia
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$720
Trade this on Polymarket
Netherlands
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Netherlands
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$437
Trade this on Polymarket
Montenegro
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Montenegro
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$717
Trade this on Polymarket
Portugal
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Portugal
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$391
Trade this on Polymarket
Italy
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Italy
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$463
Trade this on Polymarket
Azerbaijan
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Azerbaijan
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Albania
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Albania
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$621
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: junioreurovision.tv

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Armenia
  • Spain
  • Malta

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Junior Eurovision Winner 2026". Armenia leads at 39.5%. Next is Spain at 24.1%. $13K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Aug 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Junior Eurovision 2026 wins. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Junior Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Junior Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Junior Eurovision (https://junioreurovision.tv/), including live footage of Junior Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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