The Prediction Markets

Justin Bieber: Highest daily view count (October 19, 2026 - October 25, 2026)

Closes
Oct 27, 2026, in 4 days
Traded
$27K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 14M 99%

Next is Above 14.25M at 95%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 14M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 33s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14.25M
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14.25M
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14.5M
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14.5M
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14.75M
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14.75M
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15M
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15M
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$144
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15.25M
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15.25M
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15.5M
43.5%
Kalshi 43.5%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15.5M
Last price
43.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15.75M
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15.75M
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 16M
17.5%
Kalshi 17.5%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 16M
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 16.25M
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 16.25M
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Above 16.5M
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 16.5M
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 17M
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 17M
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
25M
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
25M
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 16.75M
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 16.75M
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
24M
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
24M
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
26M
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
26M
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
27M
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
27M
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: charts.youtube.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: YouTube Charts

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 14M
  • Above 14.25M
  • Above 14.5M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 14M for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Justin Bieber: Highest daily view count (October 19, 2026 - October 25, 2026)". Above 14M leads at 99%. Next is Above 14.25M at 95%. $27K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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