The Prediction Markets

Justin Bieber: Highest daily view count (October 2026)

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$36K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 15.5M 36.5%

Next is Above 16M at 26%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 15.5M
36.5%
Kalshi 36.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15.5M
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 16M
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 16M
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 16.25M
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 16.25M
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$81
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15.75M
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15.75M
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 16.5M
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 16.5M
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 16.75M
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 16.75M
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 17M
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 17M
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
25M
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
25M
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
3.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
24M
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
24M
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
26M
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
26M
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
27M
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
27M
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: charts.youtube.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: YouTube Charts

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 15.5M
  • Above 16M
  • Above 16.25M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 15.5M for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Justin Bieber: Highest daily view count (October 2026)". Above 15.5M leads at 36.5%. Next is Above 16M at 26%. $36K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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