The Prediction Markets

Jynxzi beats Elden Ring DLC by...?

Closes
Oct 23, 2026, in 2 hours
Traded
$17K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

October 31 90.6%

Next is October 25 at 67.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
October 31
90.6%
Polymarket 90.6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 90.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 31
Last price
90.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90.6¢
Sell Yes
90.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
October 25
67.5%
Polymarket 67.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 25
Last price
67.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
October 24
38%
Polymarket 38%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 24
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
October 23
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 23
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
October 22
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 22
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: twitch.tv

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • October 31
  • October 25
  • October 24

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Jynxzi beats Elden Ring DLC by...?". October 31 leads at 90.6%. Next is October 25 at 67.5%. $17K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.

Jynxzi is scheduled to begin an Elden Ring DLC marathon on October 20, 2026, with the stated goal of not ending stream until he completes it. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jynxzi defeats the Elden Ring DLC live on stream, as accepted by him as a successful completion of the challenge, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only events occurring while Jynxzi is broadcasting the challenge live will count. Footage of off-stream or previously recorded attempts will not qualify. If the challenge is cancelled, abandoned before completion, or delayed to a point after the specified date, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be footage from Jynxzi's official broadcast on YouTube and Twitch.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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