The Prediction Markets

Kansas Attorney General winner?

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$17K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Democratic 56.5%

Next is Republican at 43.5%. The venues differ most on Republican (Polymarket 42.5%, Kalshi 45%), a 2.5-point gap.

Democratic 56.5%Republican 43.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Democratic
56.5%
Polymarket 57.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 57%(55.9% fair)polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chris Mann (D)
Last price
57.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Mann
Last price
57%
Fair, margin removed
55.9%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 56¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 57¢.

Republican
43.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 45%(44.1% fair)polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kris Kobach (R)
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kris Kobach
Last price
45%
Fair, margin removed
44.1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 44¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 44¢.

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 4 differences

Where they differ

  • Kalshi settles on the party of the officeholder sworn in/inaugurated for the new term; Polymarket settles on the party of the called winner. They differ if the winner dies, withdraws or is not seated before the term starts.
  • Independents: Polymarket assigns a non-affiliated winner by stated caucus (House) or excludes independents from party options (Senate/Governor); Kalshi requires party membership.
  • Kalshi may close early on a media-consensus projection; Polymarket resolves on consensus calls with certification as the fallback.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 3, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Kansas Secretary of State
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi settles on the party of the officeholder sworn in/inaugurated for the new term; Polymarket settles on the party of the called winner. They differ if the winner dies, withdraws or is not seated before the term starts.
  • Independents: Polymarket assigns a non-affiliated winner by stated caucus (House) or excludes independents from party options (Senate/Governor); Kalshi requires party membership.
  • Kalshi may close early on a media-consensus projection; Polymarket resolves on consensus calls with certification as the fallback.
  • Trading closes Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 3, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Democratic
  • Republican

Live prices for Democratic

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Cover all 2 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Kansas Attorney General winner?". Democratic leads at 56.5%. Next is Republican at 43.5%. $17K has traded across 2 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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