The Prediction Markets

Kansas Senate Election: Sedgwick County Winner

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$15K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
6 min ago
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What the markets expect

Adam Hamilton (D) 59.8%

Next is Roger Marshall (R) at 40.2%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Adam Hamilton (D) 59.8%Roger Marshall (R) 40.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 6 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Adam Hamilton (D)
59.8%
Polymarket 59.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adam Hamilton (D)
Last price
59.5%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Roger Marshall (R)
40.2%
Polymarket 40%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
Roger Marshall (R)
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Adam Hamilton (D)
  • Roger Marshall (R)

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 2 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Kansas Senate Election: Sedgwick County Winner". Adam Hamilton (D) leads at 59.8%. Next is Roger Marshall (R) at 40.2%. $15K has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Sedgwick County in the election for United States Senator from Kansas, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Kansas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Sedgwick County.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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