The Prediction Markets

Kansas Senate margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$104K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Marshall, 1+ pts 57%

Next is Hamilton Wins at 38%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Marshall, 1+ pts
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marshall, 1+ pts
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hamilton Wins
38%
Polymarket 38%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hamilton Wins
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Marshall, 3+ pts
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marshall, 3+ pts
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hamilton, 1+ pts
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hamilton, 1+ pts
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Marshall 0-5%
36.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marshall 0-5%
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Marshall, 5+ pts
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marshall, 5+ pts
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hamilton, 3+ pts
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hamilton, 3+ pts
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Marshall 5-10%
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marshall 5-10%
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Marshall, 7+ pts
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marshall, 7+ pts
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Marshall, 9+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marshall, 9+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
7.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 15 more outcomes
Hamilton, 5+ pts
9.7%
Kalshi 9.7%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hamilton, 5+ pts
Last price
9.7%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$260
Trade this on Kalshi
Hamilton, 7+ pts
8.9%
Kalshi 8.9%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hamilton, 7+ pts
Last price
8.9%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
4.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$283
Trade this on Kalshi
Hamilton, 9+ pts
6.9%
Kalshi 6.9%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hamilton, 9+ pts
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Marshall, 15+ pts
6.1%
Kalshi 6.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marshall, 15+ pts
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$602
Trade this on Kalshi
Marshall 10-15%
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marshall 10-15%
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Marshall, 17+ pts
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marshall, 17+ pts
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Marshall, 21+ pts
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marshall, 21+ pts
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$117
Trade this on Kalshi
Marshall, 23+ pts
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marshall, 23+ pts
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$16
Trade this on Kalshi
Marshall 15-20%
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marshall 15-20%
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$725
Trade this on Polymarket
Marshall, 11+ pts
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marshall, 11+ pts
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Marshall, 19+ pts
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marshall, 19+ pts
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$800
Trade this on Kalshi
Marshall, 13+ pts
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marshall, 13+ pts
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$546
Trade this on Kalshi
Marshall 25-30%
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marshall 25-30%
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Marshall 20-25%
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marshall 20-25%
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$450
Trade this on Polymarket
Marshall 30%+
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marshall 30%+
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$326
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in, Kansas Secretary of State, Elections Division

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Marshall, 1+ pts
  • Hamilton Wins
  • Marshall, 3+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Marshall, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Kansas Senate margin of victory". Marshall, 1+ pts leads at 57%. Next is Hamilton Wins at 38%. $104K has traded across 25 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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