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What the markets expect
Kansas St. wins by over 2.5 points 47%
Next is Kansas St. wins by over 3.5 points at 41%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Kansas St. wins by over 2.5 points47%47%47¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, 30s ago48¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $208 (2.08x)Kansas St. wins by over 2.5 points47%Kalshi 47%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kansas St. wins by over 2.5 points
47%
47%
47¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
48¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kansas St. wins by over 2.5 points
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kansas St. wins by over 2.5 points
- Last price
- 47%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 47¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
- Volume
- $4K
Kansas St. wins by over 3.5 points41%41%40¢ bid, 42¢ askpolled, 30s ago42¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $238 (2.38x)Kansas St. wins by over 3.5 points41%Kalshi 41%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kansas St. wins by over 3.5 points
41%
41%
40¢ bid, 42¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
42¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kansas St. wins by over 3.5 points
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kansas St. wins by over 3.5 points
- Last price
- 41%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 42¢
- Sell Yes
- 40¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $238 (2.38x)
Arizona St. wins by over 2.5 points38%38%37¢ bid, 39¢ askpolled, 30s ago39¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $256 (2.56x)Arizona St. wins by over 2.5 points38%Kalshi 38%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Arizona St. wins by over 2.5 points
38%
38%
37¢ bid, 39¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
39¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Arizona St. wins by over 2.5 points
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Arizona St. wins by over 2.5 points
- Last price
- 38%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- 37¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
Kansas St. wins by over 4.5 points36.5%36.5%36¢ bid, 37¢ askpolled, 30s ago37¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $270 (2.70x)Kansas St. wins by over 4.5 points36.5%Kalshi 36.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kansas St. wins by over 4.5 points
36.5%
36.5%
36¢ bid, 37¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
37¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kansas St. wins by over 4.5 points
36.5%
Kalshi 36.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kansas St. wins by over 4.5 points
- Last price
- 36.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 37¢
- Sell Yes
- 36¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $270 (2.70x)
Kansas St. wins by over 6.5 points32.5%32.5%31¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, 30s ago34¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $294 (2.94x)Kansas St. wins by over 6.5 points32.5%Kalshi 32.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kansas St. wins by over 6.5 points
32.5%
32.5%
31¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
34¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kansas St. wins by over 6.5 points
32.5%
Kalshi 32.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kansas St. wins by over 6.5 points
- Last price
- 32.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 31¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
Arizona St. wins by over 3.5 points32%32%31¢ bid, 33¢ askpolled, 30s ago33¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $303 (3.03x)Arizona St. wins by over 3.5 points32%Kalshi 32%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Arizona St. wins by over 3.5 points
32%
32%
31¢ bid, 33¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
33¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Arizona St. wins by over 3.5 points
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Arizona St. wins by over 3.5 points
- Last price
- 32%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 33¢
- Sell Yes
- 31¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $303 (3.03x)
Arizona St. wins by over 4.5 points27.5%27.5%27¢ bid, 28¢ askpolled, 30s ago28¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $357 (3.57x)Arizona St. wins by over 4.5 points27.5%Kalshi 27.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Arizona St. wins by over 4.5 points
27.5%
27.5%
27¢ bid, 28¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
28¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Arizona St. wins by over 4.5 points
27.5%
Kalshi 27.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Arizona St. wins by over 4.5 points
- Last price
- 27.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 28¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $357 (3.57x)
Arizona St. wins by over 6.5 points26.5%26.5%25¢ bid, 28¢ askpolled, 30s ago28¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $357 (3.57x)Arizona St. wins by over 6.5 points26.5%Kalshi 26.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Arizona St. wins by over 6.5 points
26.5%
26.5%
25¢ bid, 28¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
28¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Arizona St. wins by over 6.5 points
26.5%
Kalshi 26.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Arizona St. wins by over 6.5 points
- Last price
- 26.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 28¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $357 (3.57x)
Kansas St. wins by over 7.5 points25.5%25.5%24¢ bid, 27¢ askpolled, 30s ago27¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $370 (3.70x)Kansas St. wins by over 7.5 points25.5%Kalshi 25.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kansas St. wins by over 7.5 points
25.5%
25.5%
24¢ bid, 27¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
27¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kansas St. wins by over 7.5 points
25.5%
Kalshi 25.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kansas St. wins by over 7.5 points
- Last price
- 25.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 27¢
- Sell Yes
- 24¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $370 (3.70x)
Kansas St. wins by over 9.5 points23.5%23.5%21¢ bid, 26¢ askpolled, 30s ago26¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $385 (3.85x)Kansas St. wins by over 9.5 points23.5%Kalshi 23.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kansas St. wins by over 9.5 points
23.5%
23.5%
21¢ bid, 26¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
26¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kansas St. wins by over 9.5 points
23.5%
Kalshi 23.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kansas St. wins by over 9.5 points
- Last price
- 23.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 26¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $385 (3.85x)
Show 11 more outcomesHide 11 outcomes
Arizona St. wins by over 7.5 points20.5%20.5%19¢ bid, 22¢ askpolled, 30s ago22¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $455 (4.55x)Arizona St. wins by over 7.5 points20.5%Kalshi 20.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Arizona St. wins by over 7.5 points
20.5%
20.5%
19¢ bid, 22¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
22¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Arizona St. wins by over 7.5 points
20.5%
Kalshi 20.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Arizona St. wins by over 7.5 points
- Last price
- 20.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
Kansas St. wins by over 10.5 points20.5%20.5%19¢ bid, 22¢ askpolled, 30s ago22¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $455 (4.55x)Kansas St. wins by over 10.5 points20.5%Kalshi 20.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kansas St. wins by over 10.5 points
20.5%
20.5%
19¢ bid, 22¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
22¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kansas St. wins by over 10.5 points
20.5%
Kalshi 20.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kansas St. wins by over 10.5 points
- Last price
- 20.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
Arizona St. wins by over 9.5 points18.5%18.5%17¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 30s ago20¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $500 (5.00x)Arizona St. wins by over 9.5 points18.5%Kalshi 18.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Arizona St. wins by over 9.5 points
18.5%
18.5%
17¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
20¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Arizona St. wins by over 9.5 points
18.5%
Kalshi 18.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Arizona St. wins by over 9.5 points
- Last price
- 18.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
Kansas St. wins by over 13.5 points15.5%15.5%14¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 30s ago17¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Kansas St. wins by over 13.5 points15.5%Kalshi 15.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kansas St. wins by over 13.5 points
15.5%
15.5%
14¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
17¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kansas St. wins by over 13.5 points
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kansas St. wins by over 13.5 points
- Last price
- 15.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
Arizona St. wins by over 10.5 points15%15%13¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 30s ago17¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Arizona St. wins by over 10.5 points15%Kalshi 15%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Arizona St. wins by over 10.5 points
15%
15%
13¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
17¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Arizona St. wins by over 10.5 points
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Arizona St. wins by over 10.5 points
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
Arizona St. wins by over 13.5 points11.5%11.5%10¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 30s ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Arizona St. wins by over 13.5 points11.5%Kalshi 11.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Arizona St. wins by over 13.5 points
11.5%
11.5%
10¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Arizona St. wins by over 13.5 points
11.5%
Kalshi 11.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Arizona St. wins by over 13.5 points
- Last price
- 11.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
Kansas St. wins by over 14.5 points11%11%8¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 30s ago14¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $714 (7.14x)Kansas St. wins by over 14.5 points11%Kalshi 11%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kansas St. wins by over 14.5 points
11%
11%
8¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
14¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kansas St. wins by over 14.5 points
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kansas St. wins by over 14.5 points
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
Arizona St. wins by over 14.5 points7.5%7.5%5¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 30s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Arizona St. wins by over 14.5 points7.5%Kalshi 7.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Arizona St. wins by over 14.5 points
7.5%
7.5%
5¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Arizona St. wins by over 14.5 points
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Arizona St. wins by over 14.5 points
- Last price
- 7.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
Kansas St. wins by over 17.5 points7%7%4¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 30s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Kansas St. wins by over 17.5 points7%Kalshi 7%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kansas St. wins by over 17.5 points
7%
7%
4¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kansas St. wins by over 17.5 points
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kansas St. wins by over 17.5 points
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
Arizona St. wins by over 17.5 points5.5%5.5%3¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 30s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Arizona St. wins by over 17.5 points5.5%Kalshi 5.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Arizona St. wins by over 17.5 points
5.5%
5.5%
3¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Arizona St. wins by over 17.5 points
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Arizona St. wins by over 17.5 points
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Kansas St. wins by over 20.5 points5.5%5.5%3¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 30s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Kansas St. wins by over 20.5 points5.5%Kalshi 5.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kansas St. wins by over 20.5 points
5.5%
5.5%
3¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kansas St. wins by over 20.5 points
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kansas St. wins by over 20.5 points
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA, ESPN
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Kansas St. wins by over 2.5 points
- Kansas St. wins by over 3.5 points
- Arizona St. wins by over 2.5 points
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Kansas St. vs Arizona St.: 1st Half Spread". Kansas St. wins by over 2.5 points leads at 47%. Next is Kansas St. wins by over 3.5 points at 41%. $4K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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