The Prediction Markets

Kansas's 2nd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$23K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Schmidt, 1+ pts 82%

Next is Schmidt, 4+ pts at 72%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Schmidt, 1+ pts
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, just nowBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Schmidt, 1+ pts
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Schmidt, 4+ pts
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, just nowBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Schmidt, 4+ pts
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Schmidt, 7+ pts
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, just nowBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Schmidt, 7+ pts
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$780
Trade this on Kalshi
Schmidt, 10+ pts
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, just nowBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Schmidt, 10+ pts
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$273
Trade this on Kalshi
Schmidt, 13+ pts
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, just nowBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Schmidt, 13+ pts
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 12-15%
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12-15%
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 9-12%
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 6-9%
17.9%
Polymarket 17.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
17.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
16.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 3-6%
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Schmidt, 16+ pts
13.6%
Kalshi 13.6%polled, just nowBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Schmidt, 16+ pts
Last price
13.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
8.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Schmidt, 19+ pts
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Schmidt, 19+ pts
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$35
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-3%
10.7%
Polymarket 10.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $503 (5.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
10.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19.9¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$503 (5.03x)
Volume
$327
Trade this on Polymarket
Schmidt, 22+ pts
8.9%
Kalshi 8.9%polled, just nowBest Yes 8.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Schmidt, 22+ pts
Last price
8.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$33
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 18-21%
8.7%
Polymarket 8.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $629 (6.29x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 18-21%
Last price
8.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15.9¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$629 (6.29x)
Volume
$439
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 15-18%
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-18%
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Schmidt, 25+ pts
7.1%
Kalshi 7.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 7.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Schmidt, 25+ pts
Last price
7.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 21%+
5.9%
Polymarket 5.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 21%+
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.6¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,042 (10.4x)
Volume
$584
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 3%+
5.2%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3%+
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,087 (10.9x)
Volume
$659
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-3%
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$278
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Schmidt, 1+ pts
  • Schmidt, 4+ pts
  • Schmidt, 7+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Schmidt, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Kansas's 2nd District margin of victory". Schmidt, 1+ pts leads at 82%. Next is Schmidt, 4+ pts at 72%. $23K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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