The Prediction Markets

Kansas's 3rd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$43K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Davids, 5+ pts 93.5%

Next is Davids, 8+ pts at 90.1%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Davids, 5+ pts
93.5%
Kalshi 93.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 95.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Davids, 5+ pts
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95.1¢
Sell Yes
90.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Davids, 8+ pts
90.1%
Kalshi 90.1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 93.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $107 (1.07x)
Kalshi
Contract
Davids, 8+ pts
Last price
90.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93.7¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$107 (1.07x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Davids, 11+ pts
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Davids, 11+ pts
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Davids, 14+ pts
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Davids, 14+ pts
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Davids, 17+ pts
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Davids, 17+ pts
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Davids, 20+ pts
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Davids, 20+ pts
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 20-25%
31.1%
Polymarket 31.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
31.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
30.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Davids, 23+ pts
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Davids, 23+ pts
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 15-20%
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Davids, 26+ pts
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Davids, 26+ pts
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Democrat 10-15%
16.2%
Polymarket 16.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 22.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $448 (4.48x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
16.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
22.3¢
Sell Yes
10.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$448 (4.48x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 25-30%
16.2%
Polymarket 16.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
16.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
12.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$515
Trade this on Polymarket
Davids, 29+ pts
8.1%
Kalshi 8.1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Davids, 29+ pts
Last price
8.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 5-10%
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8.7¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,149 (11.5x)
Volume
$509
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
3.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$814
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30%+
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30%+
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$379
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Kansas Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Davids, 5+ pts
  • Davids, 8+ pts
  • Davids, 11+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Davids, 5+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Kansas's 3rd District margin of victory". Davids, 5+ pts leads at 93.5%. Next is Davids, 8+ pts at 90.1%. $43K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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