The Prediction Markets

Kansas's 4th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$22K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Estes, 5+ pts 89.9%

Next is Estes, 8+ pts at 82%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Estes, 5+ pts
89.9%
Kalshi 89.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Estes, 5+ pts
Last price
89.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95.7¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Estes, 8+ pts
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Estes, 8+ pts
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$880
Trade this on Kalshi
Estes, 11+ pts
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Estes, 11+ pts
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$691
Trade this on Kalshi
Estes, 14+ pts
53.5%
Kalshi 53.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Estes, 14+ pts
Last price
53.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Estes, 17+ pts
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Estes, 17+ pts
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$303
Trade this on Kalshi
Estes, 20+ pts
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Estes, 20+ pts
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$450
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-20%
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 10-15%
21.6%
Polymarket 21.6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 22.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $450 (4.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
21.6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
22.2¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$450 (4.50x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Estes, 23+ pts
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Estes, 23+ pts
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
9.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$911
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 20-25%
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
Republican 25-30%
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Estes, 26+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Estes, 26+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$244
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-5%
8.2%
Polymarket 8.2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 10.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $971 (9.71x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
8.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
10.3¢
Sell Yes
6.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$971 (9.71x)
Volume
$650
Trade this on Polymarket
Estes, 32+ pts
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Estes, 32+ pts
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 5-10%
6.6%
Polymarket 6.6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 11.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $877 (8.77x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
11.4¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$877 (8.77x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30%+
5.3%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 9.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,031 (10.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30%+
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
9.7¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,031 (10.3x)
Volume
$828
Trade this on Polymarket
Estes, 29+ pts
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Estes, 29+ pts
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat Wins
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$640
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Estes, 5+ pts
  • Estes, 8+ pts
  • Estes, 11+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Estes, 5+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Kansas's 4th District margin of victory". Estes, 5+ pts leads at 89.9%. Next is Estes, 8+ pts at 82%. $22K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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